Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 24.428640 29.016748 34.747377 42.634094 53.559136 6.876214e+01 92.774145
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 19.367817 24.609800 31.927349 43.509244 62.800786 9.713459e+01 174.990606
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 16.016790 21.111190 28.681330 41.716787 66.244588 1.187810e+02 285.623595
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 14.112508 19.148312 27.019544 41.579313 72.190681 1.513485e+02 538.241715
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.322637 17.009728 24.562741 39.173114 72.225646 1.702384e+02 886.900938
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.809460 15.081065 22.097397 36.064592 69.238991 1.776952e+02 1315.461428
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.685723 13.638948 20.241735 33.725063 67.207067 1.874967e+02 2152.301849
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.891792 14.372885 22.300147 40.027609 92.142865 3.757139e+02 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.605336 14.229495 22.711340 42.849556 109.683011 6.399992e+02 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.822302 13.133321 21.113844 40.359081 106.371614 6.964664e+02 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.529061 12.879024 21.152948 42.061103 121.573203 1.223230e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.100610 12.336926 20.527878 41.834078 128.487732 1.850857e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.684142 11.809795 19.928668 41.727464 137.457011 3.381001e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.374743 11.456642 19.659484 42.547501 153.421072 1.098625e+04 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.923431 10.795975 18.635664 40.813151 152.236922 2.069112e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.622233 10.399783 18.154881 40.680116 162.347481 4.501200e+05 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 6.211142 9.762705 17.066467 38.350672 154.381998 1.494520e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.787534 9.079547 15.824049 35.337896 139.601250 1.631074e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 5.438487 8.525841 14.842089 33.067801 129.724163 9.868981e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 5.613307 9.004234 16.266765 39.178169 197.912967 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 5.566856 9.037884 16.655686 41.908938 249.110943 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 5.278624 8.561804 15.753414 39.499090 231.578057 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 5.195488 8.501409 15.874287 41.146268 275.982709 NaN NaN